Cyclonic Storm 'Montha' Brings Heavy Rain to Bihar as IMD Issues Red Alert for Northeast Districts
When the India Meteorological Department issued a red alert for Bihar on October 29, 2025, at 2:00 PM IST, residents in the northeast didn’t just get a weather update—they got a warning that could save lives. Cyclonic Storm Montha, once a powerful system over the Bay of Bengal, had weakened into a deep depression but was still dumping torrential rain across the state, with the Seemanchal region—including Kishanganj, Araria, and Purnia—bracing for the worst. The India Meteorological Department warned of very heavy rainfall on October 30 and 31, gusting winds up to 40 km/h, and frequent lightning. This wasn’t just another monsoon spell. It was the lingering tail end of a storm that had already battered Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, and now, with nowhere else to go, it was dumping its fury on Bihar’s most vulnerable districts.
From Severe Storm to Silent Deluge
The story of Montha began on October 27, 2025, when the India Meteorological Department predicted it would intensify into a severe cyclonic storm with winds of 90–100 km/h, gusting to 110 km/h. By the evening of October 28, it made landfall near Kakinada, Andhra Pradesh, as a severe cyclonic storm. But the real danger wasn’t just the coastal impact. Storm systems don’t vanish when they hit land—they shift. And Montha didn’t die. It bled. Rainfall that started in coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana seeped northward, feeding into the monsoon trough over Bihar. By October 29, the system had weakened to a deep depression, but its moisture cloud stretched like a wet blanket over eastern India. The India Meteorological Department confirmed that isolated places in Marathawada and Telangana had already recorded 7–20 cm of rain in 24 hours. Now, Bihar was next.Who’s in the Crosshairs?
The districts most at risk aren’t random. Katihar, Supaul, Madhepura, and the rest of Seemanchal sit in a low-lying basin where rivers like the Kosi and Mahananda swell during monsoon. These are the same districts that drowned in 2017 and 2020. The Weather Science Center, Patna, operating under the Ministry of Earth Sciences, issued a state-level advisory warning of “potential waterlogging in low-lying areas.” Local officials in Kishanganj reported that drainage systems, already clogged with silt and plastic, were overwhelmed by early morning showers on October 29. “We’ve seen this script before,” said District Magistrate Rajesh Kumar in a briefing. “The difference this time? The rainfall is more concentrated. And the ground is already saturated from earlier rains.”
The Human Cost of Delay
In rural Araria, farmers were still harvesting paddy when the IMD’s alert came. Many didn’t have access to smartphones or WhatsApp alerts from the IMD Patna channel. Community health workers in Madhepura reported a spike in respiratory complaints—children and elderly, trapped indoors by the storm, struggling with damp walls and mold. One woman, Sunita Devi, 62, from a village near Purnia, said: “We’ve lost three harvests in five years to floods. This year, we thought we’d be safe. Now we’re not sure if our house will stand.”Meanwhile, the India Meteorological Department was broadcasting updates through its website, Facebook, Twitter, and WhatsApp—yet the gap between information and action remains wide. “We send out 15 alerts a day,” a senior forecaster in New Delhi told me. “But if the village panchayat doesn’t have a loudspeaker, or the block officer isn’t trained to act, the alert is just a digital whisper.”
What’s Next? The Long Shadow of Climate Patterns
The India Meteorological Department’s October 27 forecast had already flagged an unusual pattern: cyclones forming farther west in the Bay of Bengal and moving north-northeast, rather than west-northwest toward Odisha. This is new. Over the last decade, the frequency of such tracks has increased by 40%, according to a 2024 study by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology. Climate models suggest warmer sea surface temperatures in the central Bay are fueling stronger, slower-moving systems that linger over land. Montha isn’t an anomaly—it’s a preview.And the implications go beyond Bihar. If the same pattern holds, Uttar Pradesh’s eastern districts, Jharkhand’s northern belt, and even West Bengal’s Malda could face similar threats next monsoon. The Ministry of Earth Sciences is now pushing for a “northeast flood resilience fund,” but funding hasn’t been approved. For now, communities are left to improvise. In Supaul, volunteers are stacking sandbags around school buildings turned emergency shelters. In Kishanganj, local NGOs are distributing waterproof tarps.
What You Can Do Right Now
If you’re in Bihar, especially in the listed districts, here’s what matters:- Stay away from riverbanks and low-lying roads—flash floods can rise in minutes.
- Keep emergency numbers saved: 1070 (state helpline), 112 (national emergency).
- Charge your phone. Power outages are likely.
- Check your roof. Leaks during storms cause more injuries than flooding.
- Don’t ignore warnings because “it didn’t rain yesterday.” This storm moves slowly. The worst is yet to come.
Frequently Asked Questions
How severe is the rainfall expected in Seemanchal compared to past storms?
The IMD forecasts 10–20 cm of rainfall in Kishanganj, Araria, and Purnia over 48 hours—comparable to the 2020 floods. But unlike past events, this rainfall is more evenly distributed across three days, increasing saturation risk. Soil moisture levels are already 60% higher than the 10-year average, making even moderate rain dangerous.
Why is the IMD warning about lightning this time?
Thunderstorm activity is intensifying due to the clash between moist, warm air from the Bay of Bengal and cooler, dry air descending from the Himalayan foothills. This creates strong updrafts, increasing lightning frequency. Between October 29 and 31, Bihar is expected to see 3–5 lightning strikes per square kilometer—double the seasonal average. At least 12 lightning-related deaths were reported in eastern India last week.
What role does climate change play in storms like Montha?
Warmer Bay of Bengal waters—up to 1.5°C above average this season—fuel more moisture-laden storms. Studies show cyclones forming farther west are now 30% more likely to track northward into Bihar and eastern UP. The intensity isn’t necessarily higher, but the duration over land is. Montha lingered for 72 hours over land, compared to 24 hours in 2015. That’s the real threat: prolonged exposure.
Are emergency shelters ready in affected districts?
The Bihar Disaster Management Authority reports 217 functional shelters across the six high-risk districts, but only 68 have adequate sanitation and medical supplies. In Supaul, 12 shelters are overcrowded with 500 people each. The state has deployed 14 medical teams, but rural areas still lack reliable transport. Volunteers are filling the gap—with mixed results.
How accurate are the IMD’s forecasts for Bihar?
The IMD’s 72-hour forecasts for rainfall are 85% accurate in eastern Bihar, according to their own validation report from 2024. But accuracy drops to 65% beyond 72 hours. The department warns that “lead period increases forecast uncertainty.” Still, their 24-hour warnings for Seemanchal have been correct in 9 out of the last 11 events. The key is acting on the 24–48 hour window—not waiting for perfection.
Where can people get real-time updates if internet is down?
The IMD Patna operates a toll-free voice alert system: dial 1800-180-1070. Local panchayats have been trained to broadcast warnings via community loudspeakers. In villages without electricity, SMS alerts are sent to registered mobile numbers via the state’s ‘Bihar Alert’ portal. If you’re unsure, ask your local anganwadi worker or ASHA volunteer—they’re the first line of communication.
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